On Thursday, labor union-backed protesters will “strike” at over 100 fast food restaurants around the country–the third such coordinated national action this year.
The Employment Policies Institute has taken out a series of full page ads in USA Today and The Wall Street Journal, warning that a $15 minimum wage would force employers to replace jobs with less costly, automated alternatives–including self-service ordering kiosks and even automatic burger makers.
The exact number of lost opportunities is difficult to quantify, since the service industry has never shouldered a minimum wage increase of this magnitude. (The jump from the current minimum wage of $7.25 an hour up to $15 an hour is a 107 percent increase.)
Still, past research on the minimum wage provides a range of employment estimates to estimate the effects of this proposal.
Eighty-five percent of the most credible studies on the subject from the last two decades point to job losses following an increase in the minimum wage, and this consensus has only been strengthened in recent years. The “consensus” effect of the minimum wage on employment is one to three percent, although studies focusing on specific industries or small businesses have found even larger effects in the range of five to nine percent.
EPI analyzed Census Bureau data from January 2012 through October 2013, focusing on fast food workers in all 50 states that would be affected by a wage increase to $15 an hour. Approximately 2.5 million workers nationwide fit this description. Using the conservative assumption that affected employment falls by three percent for each ten percent minimum wage increase, we find that roughly 460,000 jobs would be lost in the fast food industry as a consequence of a $15 minimum wage.
This is a conservative estimate because it only includes employment loss among those who hold a fast food job as their primary employment. Including those who work in the industry as a second job would increase the estimates below.
Just over one-third of those lost jobs would be concentrated in five states: California, New York, Texas, Florida, and Pennsylvania. The full list of lost fast-food jobs, separated by state, is available below.
| Fast Food Job Loss By State, $15 Minimum Wage | |
| UNITED STATES | -459,438 |
| CALIFORNIA | -50,063 |
| TEXAS | -48,965 |
| NEW YORK | -23,637 |
| FLORIDA | -23,433 |
| PENNSYLVANIA | -21,280 |
| NORTH CAROLINA | -20,022 |
| MICHIGAN | -17,236 |
| GEORGIA | -16,360 |
| ILLINOIS | -15,585 |
| OHIO | -14,563 |
| INDIANA | -13,119 |
| WISCONSIN | -11,792 |
| VIRGINIA | -11,367 |
| NEW JERSEY | -10,933 |
| TENNESSEE | -9,659 |
| SOUTH CAROLINA | -9,548 |
| MISSOURI | -8,986 |
| KENTUCKY | -8,200 |
| ALABAMA | -8,065 |
| ARIZONA | -8,010 |
| MINNESOTA | -7,968 |
| LOUISIANA | -7,500 |
| MARYLAND | -7,444 |
| MASSACHUSETTS | -7,368 |
| COLORADO | -6,611 |
| IOWA | -5,980 |
| OKLAHOMA | -5,959 |
| ARKANSAS | -5,443 |
| UTAH | -4,772 |
| KANSAS | -4,696 |
| WASHINGTON | -4,323 |
| MISSISSIPPI | -3,810 |
| NEW MEXICO | -3,602 |
| OREGON | -3,377 |
| NEBRASKA | -3,119 |
| CONNECTICUT | -3,007 |
| NEVADA | -2,801 |
| WEST VIRGINIA | -2,475 |
| IDAHO | -2,471 |
| HAWAII | -2,232 |
| MAINE | -2,067 |
| NEW HAMPSHIRE | -1,990 |
| RHODE ISLAND | -1,855 |
| MONTANA | -1,592 |
| DELAWARE | -1,374 |
| SOUTH DAKOTA | -1,357 |
| WYOMING | -930 |
| NORTH DAKOTA | -824 |
| DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA | -588 |
| ALASKA | -552 |
| VERMONT | -530 |
Methodology: Source is the January 2012 to October 2013 Current Population Survey Outgoing Rotation Group files (CPS ORG).
The sample is restricted to private wage and salary workers in the restaurants and other food services industry. Employment in limited services eating places was calculated by multiplying the sample weight in the CPS ORG for workers in the restaurants and other food services industry by 0.4447, which is the share of restaurants and other food services industry employment in limited services eating places, which was derived from Occupational Employment Statistics data.